Iran is rerouting a growing share of its imports through Russia and the Caspian Sea as the war and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz weigh on its southern ports. More than 30% of the country’s imports are now moving through northern ports, according to Iranian trade official Mohammad Reza Talaei.
Maritime traffic data point in the same direction. Windward recorded 235 Russian cargo and tanker visits to Iranian waters in the 164 days after February 28, up from 208 in the previous comparable period, a 13% increase. Iranian vessels entering Russian waters rose 7%, from 142 to 152.
Talaei said Iran had shifted flows away from the Indian Ocean towards routes through Russia and the Caspian Sea in response to the disruption of its traditional maritime access. The Iranian official did not provide a detailed breakdown of how the 30% figure was calculated.
Wheat and agricultural goods move through the Caspian
The northern route carries products including wheat, sunflower oil and animal feed, allowing trade with Russia to continue despite the sharp fall in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Windward says the shift has become more visible since the start of the war. Russian cargo and tanker activity near Iran has increased, while wet-cargo shipments from Russia to Iran rose from eight to 23 over the period studied. Their estimated volume climbed from around 174,000 barrels to about 437,000 barrels.
The Caspian route has also been used for military transfers. Le Monde, citing an NBC investigation published in August, reported that Russia had shipped drone components and explosives to Iran across the Caspian.
Southern ports under pressure
The shift north comes as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains far below pre-war levels. Only 17 commodity vessels crossed the strait over the weekend of September 19-20, compared with a pre-war average of around 125 vessels a day, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.
Iran’s southern ports and export terminals have also been affected. Tehran developed Jask, on the Gulf of Oman, specifically to allow crude exports without passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but the route has not been able to offset the broader disruption to maritime trade.
A route with much lower capacity
The Caspian cannot replace Iran’s main Gulf ports. Its falling water level is reducing navigable depths and forcing operators to use vessels suited to shallower waters.
The sea level has been falling by as much as 30 centimetres a year since 2020, increasing pressure on Iranian Caspian ports and the need for specialised ships and additional port infrastructure.
Iran therefore has a northern route that can keep part of its trade with Russia moving while access through the south remains constrained. But the Caspian’s ports, vessels and cargo capacity remain far smaller than those of the Gulf terminals that traditionally handle most of the country’s maritime trade.